29NBrújula Spain votes · 29 November
ES

What happens after 29 November: government scenarios for Spain

PP+Vox, a PP minority government, the 2023 bloc or deadlock: the probability of each and what it would change for the economy, housing, security, foreign policy and institutions.

Seat projection today

Median of 1,500 D'Hondt allocations, province by province, on the poll average: PP 137, PSOE 107, Vox 66, Sumar/FA 8, ERC 8, Bildu 7, Junts 6, PNV 5, Podemos 2, BNG 2, CC 1, UPN 1. Majority: 176. PP+Vox: 203 seats.

Scenario probabilities: PP + Vox 96 % · 2023 bloc 2 % · Deadlock and repeat election 2 % · PP minority government 0 %.

PP + Vox

PP + Vox ≥ 176. This is what all private polls project (198-213 seats). Feijóo as Prime Minister. Vox would demand to join the Council of Ministers, as it already does in Andalusia and Castile and León, or would set conditions on every law from outside.

  • Economy and jobs: Tax cuts (income tax for young people, VAT on housing) and less regulation. Risk: the 2.2% deficit was achieved with record revenues; cuts without spending reductions would raise debt. EU fiscal rules limit the room for manoeuvre.
  • Housing and public services: Repeal of the housing law and the 2026 decrees; supply (one million homes, land) instead of rent control. The anti-eviction shield would disappear. The PP announces no pension cuts; Vox calls for subsidies 'for Spaniards'.
  • Security and immigration: Points-based visa, expulsions, review of the regularisation. Vox calls for 'remigration', legally unfeasible for legal residents and citizens. Possible clash with the Supreme Court (pushbacks at the border) and with the EU (Migration Pact).
  • International standing: Meeting the NATO commitment and reconciliation with Trump; a lower profile on Gaza. Vox would align Spain with Orbán and Meloni in the EU, which would strain relations with Brussels on migration and climate.
  • Institutional quality: The PP promises a CGPJ elected by judges and an independent Attorney General, as GRECO and the European Commission call for. Symmetrical risk: controlling RTVE, the CIS and the TC. Vox questions the integrity of elections without evidence. To watch: the TC and laws upheld by the CJEU.

PP minority government

PP + PNV + CC + UPN ≥ 176, or PP close to 170 with Junts abstaining. No poll currently shows this. Investiture with moderate partners or cross-abstentions; Vox outside but decisive in every vote.

  • Economy and jobs: Moderate fiscal policy; continuity with the EU; reforms negotiated law by law.
  • Housing and public services: Housing via the supply side; less capacity to repeal the 2023 law without a majority.
  • Security and immigration: PP's ten-point migration plan without Vox's demands.
  • International standing: Alignment with the EU and NATO without the Orbán axis.
  • Institutional quality: Most favourable scenario for cross-party agreements (CGPJ, prosecutor, RTVE) out of arithmetical necessity.

2023 bloc

PSOE + Sumar + Podemos + ERC + Bildu + PNV + BNG + Junts ≥ 176. Today it requires the PSOE to recover 5-6 points and Junts to back it again. Sánchez wins the investiture vote with the same plurinational majority. Junts has already broken off once; ERC and Bildu would demand special financing and debt forgiveness enshrined in law.

  • Economy and jobs: Continuity: good macro data, minimum wage and indexed pensions. Risk: another legislature without a Budget if the partners do not agree; spending growing by decree.
  • Housing and public services: Anti-eviction shield until 2030, rent freeze, veto on investment funds, 100% loan guarantees. Data from three years of the housing law (prices +30%, supply -30%) are the main argument against.
  • Security and immigration: Regularisation consolidated; cooperation with Morocco; Supreme Court ruling on border pushbacks applied. Ceuta showed the limits of the model.
  • International standing: Keep 2% and the 'no' to 5%, Gaza and the position on Iran: consistency with public opinion and open conflict with Washington and Rutte.
  • Institutional quality: Promised reforms (prosecutor general, lobbying, classified information) remain pending. Signals S4, S5, S6, S10 and S11 in the warning-signs table are from this Government; new territorial concessions (special financing arrangement, referendum) would strain equality between regions.

Deadlock and repeat election

Neither PP+Vox nor the 2023 bloc reaches 176 and nobody abstains. It happened in 2016 and 2019. Cortes constituted in December, failed investiture vote in January-February, new elections around April 2027 with a caretaker Government.

  • Economy and jobs: Another year without a Budget, unable to legislate in response to the energy crisis; rating agencies penalise the paralysis.
  • Housing and public services: Housing measures are left in limbo; nothing is repealed or passed.
  • Security and immigration: Caretaker administration; no reforms.
  • International standing: Caretaker Government with less weight in Brussels and NATO.
  • Institutional quality: Constitutional Court and other bodies not renewed; more decrees; more polarisation. This is the scenario that most resembles the 'preliminary phase' described by the warning-signs table.