Spain election polls 2026: poll average and seat projection
Weighted average of private polls since July and a province-by-province seat projection with uncertainty for the 29 November general election.
Poll average
Weighted average of private polls (reference 16 October): PP 31.9 %, PSOE 26.5 %, Vox 18.9 %, Sumar/FA 6.3 %, Podemos 2.9 %, ERC 2.2 %, SALF 1.6 %, Junts 1.5 %, Bildu 1.4 %, PNV 0.9 %, BNG 0.9 %.
Seat projection today
Median of 1,500 D'Hondt allocations, province by province, on the poll average: PP 137, PSOE 107, Vox 66, Sumar/FA 8, ERC 8, Bildu 7, Junts 6, PNV 5, Podemos 2, BNG 2, CC 1, UPN 1. Majority: 176. PP+Vox: 203 seats.
Scenario probabilities: PP + Vox 96 % · 2023 bloc 2 % · Deadlock and repeat election 2 % · PP minority government 0 %.
Latest polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | PP | PSOE | Vox | Sumar | Podemos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMOP Insights | 2026-10-16 | 1000 | 28.5 | 27.1 | 20.0 | 8.9 | 1.9 |
| SocioMétrica | 2026-10-11 | 1000 | 32.6 | 26.2 | 18.8 | 4.9 | 2.8 |
| Target Point | 2026-10-09 | 1002 | 32.0 | 25.9 | 18.7 | 6.9 | 3.4 |
| GAD3 | 2026-10-08 | 1077 | 31.4 | 26.4 | 18.2 | 7.4 | 2.3 |
| GESOP | 2026-10-08 | 1000 | 28.7 | 26.1 | 18.9 | 8.0 | 2.6 |
| 40dB | 2026-10-08 | 800 | 31.9 | 28.1 | 18.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 |
| Hamalgama Métrica | 2026-10-08 | 1000 | 33.4 | 25.3 | 19.6 | 5.4 | 3.3 |
| DYM | 2026-10-07 | 1011 | 34.0 | 28.2 | 18.2 | 3.6 | 2.6 |
| IMOP Insights | 2026-10-07 | 900 | 30.4 | 26.5 | 19.0 | 7.6 | 2.3 |
| NC Report | 2026-10-06 | 1000 | 34.1 | 25.0 | 18.2 | 5.3 | 3.9 |
| Electomanía (ElectoPanel) | 2026-10-03 | 8171 | 31.3 | 26.9 | 19.4 | 5.2 | 3.4 |
| SocioMétrica | 2026-10-03 | 1000 | 33.4 | 26.5 | 18.1 | 5.3 | 3.1 |
| Data10 | 2026-10-02 | 1000 | 34.0 | 26.1 | 18.6 | 5.2 | 4.3 |
| Sigma Dos | 2026-10-01 | 2116 | 32.6 | 25.6 | 18.3 | 6.6 | 3.3 |
| Winston | 2026-10-01 | 1201 | 31.3 | 24.9 | 19.1 | 6.8 | 3.9 |