Spain compared with Switzerland, France, Italy, Austria, Poland, Venezuela, Mexico and El Salvador

Democracy, corruption, press freedom and economic indicators measured with the same yardstick, and thirteen warning signs of democratic backsliding.

To compare Spain — using independent data and the same yardstick for all — with five European democracies (Switzerland, France, Italy, Austria and Poland) and three recent cases in the Americas (Venezuela, Mexico and El Salvador). This is neither a prediction nor a thesis: it is a list of signals that the academic literature (Levitsky and Ziblatt; Bermeo; V-Dem) identifies as precursors of democratic and economic decline, scored for each country.

V-Dem · Liberal Democracy Index

Switzerland 0.84, France 0.80, Austria 0.76, Spain 0.74, Poland 0.65, Italy 0.64, Mexico 0.22, El Salvador 0.09, Venezuela 0.04.

Warning signs

Capture of the referees (judicial council, Constitutional Court, prosecutor's office, electoral body): CGPJ blocked for 5 years and 7 months (2018-24); first Attorney General convicted; four Constitutional Court judges with mandates expired since March 2026; GRECO and the European Commission call for changing how the CGPJ and the Attorney General are chosen.
Judicial reform driven by the executive: Reform of the LECrim (Criminal Procedure Act; prosecutors to lead investigations) and of the Attorney General's statute, not passed. CGPJ reform pending.
Pressure on the press and capture of public media: RSF: from 23rd to 29th place. RTVE: board expanded by decree-law with a simple majority (2024); report by the newsroom councils (Consejos de Informativos, 2026) on bias; European Commission: medium-high risk.
Executive versus legislature: governing by decree, without budgets: 60 decree-laws and 11 rejected in the 15th legislature (a record); 2023 Budget rolled over three times; 32 laws in three years (historic low); decrees re-approved after the dissolution of the Cortes so they could be validated in the Standing Committee (Diputación Permanente).
Politicisation of the prosecution service: First prosecutor general to be charged and convicted while in office; the post's term is tied to that of the Government (flagged by the European Commission and GRECO since 2020).
Pardon or legal exemption for political allies: Amnesty law agreed for the investiture vote (2024). Upheld by the Constitutional Court (6-4) and the CJEU; the Venice Commission called it 'controversial'.
Delegitimising opponents, judges or referees: Government and opposition accuse each other of 'lawfare' and an 'assault on the institutions'; the Constitutional Court warns that statements against specific judges erode trust (European Commission 2026); Vox and Ayuso sow doubts about postal voting without evidence.
Unsustainable debt and spending, inflation, price or exchange controls: Debt 100.7% and falling; deficit 2.2%; unemployment 9.9%; growth 2.8%. But public spending has grown by 19% over the three years without a Budget, and inflation is rising again to 4.9% because of energy.
High and persistent affective polarisation: CEMOP index 5.20 (2024) → 4.94 (2025); rejection of Abascal 68%, Feijóo 56%, Sánchez 54%; 70% perceive more tension; trust in the media 4.1/10. Academic studies place Spain among the most polarised countries in Western Europe.
Colonisation of statistical or polling institutions: The CIS (state-run polling institute) has overestimated the left-wing bloc in 41 of 42 elections since 2018; a fine from the JEC (Central Electoral Board) (2024); a committee of inquiry in the Senate. The INE (National Statistics Institute) and the Banco de España retain their independence.
Governing with allies who make support conditional on matters of constitutional or territorial integrity: Investiture with 179 votes (Junts, ERC, PNV, Bildu, BNG); amnesty, special financing arrangement and debt forgiveness as concessions; Junts breaks away and triggers the early election.
Militarisation of public security: No signal.
Non-competitive elections or an electoral body without autonomy: Competitive elections, independent JEC, peaceful transfers of power in 2011, 2018 and 2023. Doubts about postal voting have no documentary basis.