Spain's 29 November 2026 general election: polls, seats and scenarios, without taking sides

Who is ahead, what each result would mean and how Spain compares with other countries. An independent citizen observatory: every figure with its source.

Seat projection today

Median of 1,500 D'Hondt allocations, province by province, on the poll average: PP 137, PSOE 107, Vox 66, Sumar/FA 8, ERC 8, Bildu 7, Junts 6, PNV 5, Podemos 2, BNG 2, CC 1, UPN 1. Majority: 176. PP+Vox: 203 seats.

Scenario probabilities: PP + Vox 96 % · 2023 bloc 2 % · Deadlock and repeat election 2 % · PP minority government 0 %.

Key points

Three people affected by the voting suspension under the "grandchildren's law" ask the Supreme Court to annul the interim measures, a step before a possible appeal to the Constitutional Court (25 October). This is a filing by three affected people, not a decision: the Supreme Court must rule first and the dates are estimates by their law firm. Level B (20minutos, a single source, citing sources at Garzón's firm).
Riots in Barcelona after a youth protest: about a hundred arrested, according to the Mossos (25 October). These are public-order events attributed to the Generalitat and the Mossos, with no established link to the campaign; the protest is not attributed to any party. Level B (El Español, citing statements by the Catalan Interior councillor, Illa and Collboni).
Court of Audit opens proceedings to recover more than 400,000 euros paid to Sánchez's brother and his friend in Badajoz (25 October). This is a procedural step opening Court of Audit proceedings, not a ruling on repaying the money; the Badajoz provincial council opposes it. Level B (El Mundo, a single source: it says it has confirmed it).
Feijóo includes Alma Ezcurra as number four for Madrid; Pedro Rollán will head the Senate list and Inmaculada Sanz will be number two (24 October). This is the list the PP communicates through party sources; it is not yet proclaimed by the Electoral Board. Level C (according to PP sources cited by Europa Press; ABC reports it the same way).
Abascal in Palma: "I am not running to be vice-president, but to be president" (24 October). These are statements by the Vox leader at a rally; they change no lists and are not a published programme. Level B (El Mundo and 20minutos, reporting his words).

Upcoming dates

26 October: End of the period for submitting candidacies (21-26 Oct)
28 October: Publication of the candidacies submitted
2 November: Official proclamation of candidacies
9 November: Postal vote documentation begins to be sent out